The Obligation to Build Shelters Will Cost New Developments Dearly

According to the state draft, starting from September 1, 2025, the obligation to build shelters will apply not only to new large public buildings but also to apartment buildings, which will make construction of new developments significantly more expensive than the state's forecast.

According to Igor Habal, a board member of Uus Maa, Estonia's largest real estate office, the new law should come into force this autumn, but is currently still at the draft stage, which contains a great deal of uncertainty. "The draft law is largely modeled on the Finnish example, and it has been reality there for decades. In Estonia, the obligation to build shelters for new developments with a floor area of more than 1,200 square meters would affect ordinary people the most. In essence, this means new developments with 15-20 apartments, which is the lion's share," Habal said.

"The big question is what the exact requirements are and what the additional construction costs will be. In essence, it is certainly an important decision, but it will be considerably more expensive per building than the state's estimate. According to the Interior Ministry's forecast, this will increase construction costs by up to 2-3%. If shelters are built underground, it means not just a hole in the ground, but also the construction of various technical systems starting with heating, generators and ending with food and water storage," Habal said.

"Based on previous experience, building just one floor underground means a 5 to 10 percent increase in construction costs, but for taller buildings, this could mean several floors. The construction costs will certainly increase by double-digit percentages, not two percent," Habal said.

"In theory, a shelter could also be built above ground, but this would come at the expense of the plot and raises the question of whether municipalities would relax the existing parking and greening standards accordingly," Habal added.

"The obligation to build shelters will certainly affect the prices of new homes. Developers probably won't be able to pass all of this on to buyers' shoulders, as then their homes wouldn't be competitive compared to older ones. In theory, a shelter could also be a sales advantage, for which buyers are willing to pay a bit more," Habal said.

"Currently, there are no precise requirements and limits for what the shelter must be like – from wall thickness to the accompanying technical systems. The new requirements should also apply to the renovation of old apartment buildings – yet it is clear that you cannot dig shelters under Mustamäe or Lasnamäe panel buildings. Therefore, a large part of Tallinn's population would remain outside protection one way or another," Habal noted.

"Considering greater security is the right direction from the state, but the public sector itself should set a better example by building shelter options covering entire areas around state-owned buildings. Simply adding an obligation to new developments will not nearly meet the population's needs and would take several generations," Habal added.