Analyst: Instead of Falling, New Apartment Prices Are Actually Rising

According to Sten Renar Subatšjus, the analysis director of Estonia's largest real estate office Uus Maa, real estate prices will rise by 5-10 percent this year, and contrary to expectations, new apartment prices will increase more.

"Last year, an average of 750 real estate transactions were made on the Tallinn apartment market per month, which exceeds the long-term average by nearly 50. Although there were many transactions, prices remained relatively stable. Given that consumer confidence and wages are rising, the elimination of the tax barrier leaves more money in accounts, and general economic indicators are also rising, this will be reflected in real estate prices this year," said Subatšjus.

According to Sten Renar Subatšjus, the average asking price for a Tallinn apartment rose by nearly 8% year-on-year, but the number of active listings fell by over 5% in the same period. "People see that prices won't go down and make their purchase decision. This was also shown by January's near-record median price per square meter. The average real estate price increase will come in the range of 5-10 percent in 2026, and new apartment prices in particular will rise," noted Subatšjus.

"While secondary market apartments saw increased sales and prices last year, this year will bring relief to new developments. Last year, secondary market apartments sometimes accounted for 90% of all sales, but in recent months this share has declined and could reach an 80/20 ratio this year. Since a new apartment in the capital has become essentially a luxury product, the price difference with the secondary market could also remain in the 30-40% range in the future," said Subatšjus.

"Buyers waited for years for new apartment prices to come down, but developers maintained their level, and transactions in recent months show that prices are actually rising. However, there is one difference – while previously a year was expected as the sales period for a new apartment, now it's rather two years," said the Uus Maa analyst.

"Last year, the average price per square meter for a new apartment was around 4,500 euros, and at the end of the year there was a jump to 4,800 euros. The trend is also shown by the fact that in newly completed buildings, the average price per square meter is around 4,400 euros, but in buildings under construction it's already close to 4,800 euros, which shows that prices are no longer falling and are instead rising," said the analyst.